Embracing uncertainty in project evaluation

David Balfe
State Director (QLD), Veitch Lister Consulting

Every year, decision-makers invest billions of dollars into transport infrastructure projects designed to accommodate future decades of travel demand growth. The business cases which support these decisions include forecasts of demand which are increasingly uncertain given impending technological changes. Automated vehicles, electric cars, Mobility as a Service and other technological and policy futures may have a major impact on the validity of demand forecasts.

Demand forecasting tools rely on observed behaviours to inform their forecasts, so relying on these tools to forecast a future of changed behaviours is unreliable. How then, can we make robust decisions in the face of so much uncertainty? The answer is to move away from a ‘single-future’ model of assessment and toward an approach which embraces the range of uncertainty.

In partnership with the Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR), Veitch Lister Consulting (VLC) has developed an approach which:

• Implements the key expected impacts of technological changes in travel demand models
• Sources assumptions about the scale of impacts and their likelihood of occurring from a panel of TMR’s expert staff
• Applies probability-based analysis to provide a ‘cloud’ of likely project benefit outcomes, rather than a single benefit forecast
• Exposes and documents the forecasting methodology, assumptions, and benefit assessment framework for future application and improvement by others
• Allows projects to leverage the work of previous assessments, reducing the cost of assessing multiple futures.

This project is the first step toward an improved benefit assessment methodology for infrastructure projects, with the ultimate aim of improving TMR’s project assessments and potentially informing national practice.

Engineering, Innovation, and Technology as the cornerstone of human connection and relationships

Kevin Cocks
Executive General Manager, Department of Transport and Main Roads

“Where, after all, do universal human rights begin? In small places, close to home – so close and so small that they cannot be seen on any maps of the world. Yet they are the world of the individual person; the neighbourhood he lives in; the school or college he attends; the factory, farm or office where he works. Such are the places where every man, woman and child seek equal justice, equal opportunity, equal dignity without discrimination. Unless these rights have meaning there, they have little meaning anywhere. Without concerned citizen action to uphold them close to home, we shall look in vain for progress in the larger world.”. Eleanor Roosevelt. As the chair of the United Nations Human Rights Commission, Eleanor Roosevelt was the driving force in creating the 1948 charter of liberties which will always be her legacy: The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It’s about everyone having dignity, free from discrimination and equal opportunity.

Every discipline should be about the improvement of human life in the developing egalitarian world. As engineers your perceived role stereotypes are designing and building important stuff, sticking to the compliance checklists while wearing the appropriate safety gear. But, in reality, an engineer’s role is about designing and building precincts that connect people to move freely in environments, to critical services and facilities (schools, medical, recreation, work, shopping). As engineers, you are actively contributing to someone’s human rights, to have a right to life, freedom of movement, religion and belief, freedom of expression, taking part in public life, protection of families and children, cultural rights, education and health services. You are empowering people to be safe, welcome and connected in this world. You are the facilitators of dignified experiences for all.

So – how do we move from the inaccessible Aztec pyramids (not diminishing the mastery of architecture and engineering of the Aztecs) to most accessible Fjords Ferries. This panel session will focus on the TMR Accessibility and Inclusion Strategy and Action Plan, universal design, functional versus compliant design from planning procurement to delivery, maintenance, and the underpinning motivators of it all; human connection and dignity. Together how can we future-proof our network and services…and deliver a single integrated transport network accessible to everyone.

Station Design: Meeting the Future Challenges for New Mobility

Cathie Norton
Associate, Arup

The Queensland Government has released the Queensland Transport Strategy, a 30-year vision for the transport system which aims for accessible and convenient transport, safe journeys for all, seamless and efficient transport, and sustainable, resilient and liveable communities.

As a passenger transport operator in South East Queensland, the Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) has a rolling program of upgrades to station and access facilities to respond to a range of existing problems, such as inadequate platform capacity, bus-rail interchange arrangements and meeting DDA compliance. In recent years there has also been considerable community and political pressure calling for short term investment in park ‘n’ ride capacity upgrades. However, disruptive transport and technology developments are initiating rapid unprecedented change for our future transport system. This technology could reduce the need for parking by up to 75% by some estimates.

The changes in mobility trends, driven by personalised transport in the short term and by autonomous vehicles in future, suggest that parking is unlikely to be a major issue. Instead, less private parking and more drop off/pick up facilities are expected. The resulting land could instead be used to create liveable communities and promote more environmentally friendly, safer travel journeys. Building on global research and trends, this paper presents a significant opportunity for TMR to re-think conventional station design by transitioning to mobility hubs. Examples of mobility hubs are emerging globally which integrate public transport with a range of new shared mobility modes to act as catalysts for more sustainable and inclusive travel choices, as well as creating opportunities to incorporate community facilities, public space, and residential and commercial development.

This paper explores defining attributes for stations to function as mobility hubs and develops a transition pathway for TMR for stations through planning for flexible infrastructure.

Paver laid insutu pavement recycling

Scott Young
Technical Manager, Stabilised Pavements Of Australia

Recyclers have introduced to Australia a new innovation in pavement recycling and road construction using new and innovative pavement recycling techniques through paver laid insitu pavement recycling.

Foamed asphalt and heavy duty pavements are new modes of pavement recycling technology in Australia. Pavement recyclers has invested in the W380CR which is the latest machinery capable of producing foamed asphalt and heavy duty pavements, providing a more efficient, cost effective and sustainable alternative to conventional practices. The foamed asphalt product is a hybrid pavement using the best qualities of the more established and competing methods of pavement rehabilitation currently used in Australia – combining the recycling benefits and superior performance of insitu foamed bitumen stabilisation with the paving method and appearance of conventional asphalt.

Trials of paver laid insitu pavement recycling conducted in NSW in 2020 have revealed the following benefits to asset owners:

• Prevention of the excavation and waste of existing material
• Greenhouse gas emissions reduced by approximately 60%
• Total truck movements, the distance traversed over the existing pavement network, and fuel consumption reduced by approximately 75%
• Foamed asphalt provided economical savings between 30%-50% when compared to conventional and competing rehabilitation alternatives
• Significantly reduced impacts and disturbance to residents and local communities from high production rates up to 800 tonnes/hour achieved by the capability to recycle large lane widths up to 3.8m wide. This equates to daily productivity improvements of more than double compared to other techniques producing similar rehabilitation outcomes
• Works undertaken in a single machine pass per lane, providing improved site safety from significantly reduced reversing movements
• Utilisation of paver-placed technology uniformly placed recycled material, ensuring precise and controlled surface levels and eliminated the need for a grader
• Foamed asphalt and heavy duty pavements were opened to traffic at the completion of each shift